16 October 2023

A large-scale study has confirmed the effectiveness of a prediction model that can identify people affected by venous thromboembolism (VTE) with a low risk of recurrence.

These patients may not require long-term anticoagulant treatment, researchers say.

The validity of the Vienna Prediction Model, developed at MedUni Vienna, has been confirmed in a large-scale clinical study, researchers have reported. The results have been published in European Heart Journal.

This study, conducted with MedUni Graz at the Division of Haematology and Haemostaseology at the Department of Internal Medicine at MedUni Vienna, investigated how well the Vienna Prediction Model identifies the risk of recurrence in patients with VTE.

The study included 818 patients with unprovoked deep-vein thrombosis or pulmonary embolism who received medication for an average of four months.

The prediction model was applied to the patients three weeks after they were taken off medication. In 520 (65%), the model showed their risk of relapse was low (less than 5.5%).

These patients were followed for two years to see if they had a recurrence of VTE. The results showed the risk of relapse was 5.2% after one year.

However, study leader Dr Paul Kyrle from MedUni Vienna said the prediction of risk was not precise enough for patients with a two-year relapse risk of more than 5%.

This study also confirmed that men with proximal deep-vein thrombosis or pulmonary embolism have a higher risk of recurrence than women.

Co-study leader Dr Sabine Eichinger said: “The Vienna Prediction Model can help to identify patients with VTE who have a low risk of recurrence. For this group, the therapy can be changed in such a way that blood thinners can be dispensed with altogether. In addition to gaining quality of life, they also benefit from eliminating the bleeding risk associated with blood thinners.”

The study authors say with the Vienna Prediction Model, it is possible to determine the risk of recurrence and to adjust the duration of therapy accordingly, taking into account gender, localisation of venous thrombosis and D-dimer levels.


Kyrle PA, Eischer L, Šinkovec H, Gressenberger P, Gary T, Brodmann M, Heinze G, Eichinger S. (2023) “The Vienna Prediction Model for identifying patients at low risk of recurrent venous thromboembolism: a prospective cohort study.” European Heart Journal, doi: 10.1093/eurheartj/ehad618

Link: https://academic.oup.com/eurheartj/advance-article/doi/10.1093/eurheartj/ehad618/7285393

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